INSIDE THE LINES
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 22
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Philadelphia (42-41, 37-44-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (59-24, 49-33-1 ATS)
The Magic aim to bounce back from a stunning series-opening loss when they host the 76ers at Amway Arena in Game 2 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference set.
Philadelphia rallied from an 18-point third-quarter deficit Sunday, getting an Andre Iguodala 22-foot jumper to fall in the final seconds to pull off the 100-98 upset as a heavy 9½-point underdog. Iguodala paced the Sixers with 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, and Philly has followed a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) with a pair of SU wins (1-1 ATS).
The Magic got a stellar game from Dwight Howard (31 points, 16 rebounds) in defeat, but they have now dropped four of their last five overall and six of their last seven ATS decisions. Sunday’s setback ended a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Orlando in this rivalry, and the underdog is now 24-11 ATS in the last 35 clashes between these teams.
The Magic are 32-10 at Amway Arena this year (23-19 ATS), while Philly is 25-17 on the highway (19-23 ATS).
Along with their current 1-6 ATS skid overall, the Magic are on pointspread dips of 0-7 against the Atlantic Division, 0-5 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 1-4 as a favorite. However, Orlando – which had the league’s second-best regular-season ATS mark -- still sports positive ATS streaks of 9-3 against winning teams, 11-4-1 after a two-day break, 48-18-1 after a SU loss and 37-16-1 after a pointspread setback.
The 76ers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 starts against Southeast Division foes, but they’re still on negative ATS stretches of 1-5 overall (all in the East), 2-5 on the highway, 6-15-1 as a playoff underdog and 3-9-1 as a playoff pup of five to 10½ points.
The under for Orlando is on tears of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home and 22-9 as a home chalk, but the over for the Magic is on upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 when laying points in the playoffs. In addition, the over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 7-0 overall, 10-1 on the road, 7-0 against the Eastern Conference, 7-0 as a ‘dog and 16-7 after a SU win.
Finally, the last two contests in this rivalry have gone high, and the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last seven head-to-head clashes in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER
(5) Miami (43-40, 40-41-2 ATS) at (4) Atlanta (48-35, 44-38-1 ATS)
The Hawks look to grab a 2-0 lead when they face the Heat as this first-round battle between Southeast Division rivals resumes at Philips Arena.
Atlanta pounded Miami in Sunday’s series opener, posting a 90-64 victory as a 4½-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS skid. Josh Smith had a double-double of 23 points and 10 rebounds, and five more Hawks reached double figure in scoring in the rout. Atlanta has now won five of its last six starts (3-3 ATS), and Sunday’s win and cover stemmed a 3-8 ATS slide in its previous 11 games.
Miami had just two players score in double figures in Game 1, getting 19 points from Dwyane Wade and 10 points from rookie Michael Beasley, who also had 10 rebounds. The Heat scored just 25 second-half points, including only seven in the fourth quarter. The loss ended Miami’s three-game ATS surge, and it fell to 5-8 SU in its last 13 games (7-6 ATS).
The Hawks are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in five clashes with the Heat this season, and the ATS winner has now alternated in each of the last six meetings. Despite Atlanta’s recent success in this rivalry, Miami is still 21-9 ATS in its last 30 series battles, including 7-3 ATS on its last 10 trips to Philips Arena.
The Hawks improved to 32-10 at home this season with Sunday’s victory (23-18-1 ATS), while Miami -- which finished with the NBA’s worst overall record last year – is 15-27 on the road (20-21-1 ATS).
The Heat have dropped four straight ATS decisions in conference quarterfinal games and are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight starts as a playoff underdog. However, they still carry positive ATS streaks of 6-3 overall, 5-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 5-1 after a SU loss and 6-2 after a pointspread defeat.
The Hawks are on a 9-3-1 ATS surge as a home chalk and are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a spread-cover. But they also remain on spread-covering slides of 2-5 at home, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-5 coming off a SU win.
The under for the Heat is on stretches of 6-0 against winning teams and 8-2 when Miami is a playoff pup, and the under for the Hawks is on rolls of 12-5 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 in Southeast Division play. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in all five meetings this year, and the under is 6-1 in the last six contests in Atlanta (4-0 in the last four at Philips Arena).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(7) New Orleans (49-34, 35-46-2 ATS) at (2) Denver (55-28, 45-37-1 ATS)
The red-hot Nuggets will try to keep it going when they take on the Hornets in Game 2 of their Western Conference series at the Pepsi Center.
Denver pummeled New Orleans 113-84 in Sunday’s opener, getting 36 points from guard Chauncey Billups –who went an eye-opening 8-for-9 from three-point range – while four other Nuggets scored in double digits. The Nuggets are now 15-3 SU (11-7 ATS) in their last 18 outings, and they’ve cracked the 100-point barrier in 17 of those games, scoring 110 points or more 13 times.
Chris Paul led New Orleans with 21 points and 11 assists, but the Hornets got outscored 58-37 in the second half en route to their third straight loss (1-2 ATS), and they’re now 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) in their last nine games. The three-game skid has all come on the road against playoff teams, as New Orleans finished the regular season with an 86-66 drubbing at Houston as an eight-point pup, then lost at San Antonio 105-98 in overtime but cashing as a nine-point pup.
Denver is 3-2 SU and ATS against New Orleans this season, winning and cashing in the last two meetings, and the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry. However, the Hornets are still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the Mile High City, and the road team is 11-6 ATS in the last 17 clashes overall.
The Nuggets, who haven’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and are still just 5-23 in their last 28 playoff games, are 34-8 at home (24-17-1 ATS) this season, while New Orleans is 21-21 as a visitor (16-25-1 ATS).
Denver is on positive ATS streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3 against the West, 5-1 as a favorite, 22-5-1 as a home chalk of five to 10½ points and 8-3 against winning teams. Despite Sunday’s outcome, though, the Nuggets are still just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 first-round playoff games.
The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a non-cover, but they are otherwise on pointspread purges of 8-20 as an underdog, 3-7 on the road, 7-19 as a road pup, 0-4 against the Northwest Division, 0-6 catching five to 10½ points and 2-6 against the Western Conference.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 7-2 at home, 8-3 with the Nuggets favored and 9-4 against winning teams. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in nine of the last 13 clashes in Denver, with Sunday’s game barely eclipsing the 195½-point posted price. On the flip side, the under for New Orleans is still on streaks of 14-6 overall, 8-2-1 against teams with a winning home record and 7-2-1 when the Hornets are a playoff ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (7-6) at Chicago Cubs (8-4)
Ted Lilly (2-0, 3.86 ERA) looks to pick up his third victory in as many starts in 2009 when he takes the ball for the Cubs and opposes Reds youngster Johnny Cueto (0-1, 4.22) in the middle game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field.
After two days off because of a rainout and a scheduled off day, Chicago returned to the field Tuesday and pounded out a 7-2 victory, its third consecutive win. The Cubs carry hot streaks of 6-2 overall (all as a favorite), 58-27 at home (4-2 this year), 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 12-5 on Wednesday.
Cincinnati had a modest two-game winning streak snapped last night, but remains on runs of 6-3 overall (all against N.L. Central rivals), 5-3 on the road, 5-3 as an underdog and 12-5 against lefty starters. On the downside, the Reds have lost six of their last seven on Wednesday.
These division rivals were highly competitive against each other last season, with Chicago holding a slim 8-7 edge. However, the home team has won 12 of the last 17 clashes.
Cueto lasted just 4 2/3 innings at Houston on Friday despite giving up just two hits and a run, with the Reds rallying for a 2-1 road win. The right-hander has just one quality start in his last seven outings dating to last season. Cueto faced the Cubs four times in his rookie season last year, going 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA, including 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in two games at Wrigley Field.
The Reds have lost 12 of Cueto’s last 17 road starts and eight of his last 11 against Central division rivals.
Lilly had his scheduled start Sunday against the Cardinals rained out, so he hasn’t worked since April 13, when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in a 4-0 home win over the Rockies. He finished allowing just the single hit and two walks while striking out eight in 6 2/3 frames, a much sharper performance than his first outing when he yielded five runs and eight hits over five innings in an 11-6 win at Houston.
Lilly has struggled against the Reds in his career, going 1-5 with a 5.24 ERA in nine starts, and Chicago is 1-7 in his last eight outings against Cincinnati, including 0-5 in the last five. In four starts versus the Reds last year, the southpaw went 0-4 with an 8.15 ERA.
Chicago is unbeaten in Lilly’s last six starts overall, and with the lefty on the hill the Cubbies are on further runs of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 12-2 against winning teams, 5-0 as a favorite and 5-0 versus the N.L. Central.
Cincinnati is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all on the road and all against the N.L. Central), 11-1-1 when facing southpaw starters on the road, 13-5-1 with Cueto on the mound and 9-1-1 when Cueto works on the road. Also, the Cubs have stayed under the total in each of Lilly’s last six home starts, but otherwise Chicago is on “over” stretches of 6-1-1 overall (all at home) and 6-0 against the N.L. Central. Finally, the over is 4-1 in Lilly’s last five starts against Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
N.Y. Mets (6-7) at St. Louis (9-5)
The Mets continue their three-game road trip at Busch Stadium when they send John Maine (0-2, 7.20) to the mound opposite the Cardinals’ Joel Pineiro (2-0, 5.40).
New York blew a 4-0 lead in Tuesday’s series opener and lost 6-4 for its second consecutive setback. The Mets, who have yet to win or lose more than two consecutive games in 2009, are now 3-4 on the road this season, but they’re otherwise on positive streaks of 10-5 against the N.L. Central, 13-7 versus right-handed starters, 20-7 on Wednesday and 6-0 in the second game of a series.
The Cardinals snapped a mini two-game slide with last night’s victory. St. Louis has won five straight home games, and the Redbirds are on further upticks of 15-5 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 6-0 at home against right-handed starters.
Since St. Louis beat New York in seven games to claim the 2006 National League pennant, these teams have met 15 times, with the Mets winning nine of those contests, including taking five of eight at Busch Stadium.
Maine, who missed the final month of last season because of a shoulder injury that required surgery, has gotten off to a rocky start. He’s pitched just five innings in each of his first two outings, giving up two runs in a 5-4 loss at Florida and six runs in Thursday’s 6-5 home setback to San Diego. Going back to last year, Maine hasn’t pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in any of his last six starts, five of which New York has lost, including the last four in a row.
Maine is 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA in five career outings (two in the playoffs) against St. Louis, though he’s allowed only six earned runs in his last four starts against the Redbirds spanning 20 1/3 innings (2.66 ERA).
Pineiro gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings in his most recent start a week ago tonight in Arizona, but St. Louis bailed him out in a 12-7 victory, improving to 3-0 in the right-hander’s last three starts. Pineiro was sharp in his first home effort of 2009 (two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-3 victory over the Astros), and he went 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA at home last year.
Pineiro has faced the Mets three times since September 2007, and the Cardinals won all three games. That includes a pair of victories last year by scores of 8-7 and 10-8, despite the fact Pineiro allowed nine runs on 21 hits in nine innings in those two contests.
The Mets have won 14 of Maine’s last 16 Wednesday starts, but they’ve lost four of his last five on the road and six straight games with Maine opposing N.L. Central opponents. Meanwhile, with Pineiro on the bump, St. Louis is on streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-0 on Wednesday and 6-1 against the N.L. East.
The over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between these squads and 5-0-1 in the last six clashes at Busch Stadium. Additionally, the over for the Mets is on streaks of 12-5 against the N.L. Central, 36-17-4 on Wednesday and 11-3-3 in Maine’s last 17 starts overall. while St. Louis has topped the total in six straight overall, nine of its last 12 at home and eight of Pineiro’s last 11 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
